The city of Miami is buzzing as Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) and Netflix present a fight card headlined by Jake Paul (12-1, 7 KOs) taking on former two-time heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua (28-4, 25 KOs) in a scheduled eight-round bout live from the Kaseya Center. With anticipation building about how this main event will unfold, it’s time to examine both fighters and determine who has the advantage heading into fight night.
Jake Paul Has Everything To Gain And Nothing To Lose
The show of all show has arrived in South Florida, and few can command attention like Paul can. That’s why Netflix has no issues cutting check after check for a Paul event, as the last two on their streaming platform have seen record viewership for the sport. After facing mediocre opponents or ones past their prime, Paul is finally taking on a fighter who is not only active but also has the résumé of facing every major name in the heavyweight division except Tyson Fury. This fight with Joshua is a win-win because Paul will be celebrated for his courage if he gets knocked out, or he’ll be recognized as a legitimate contender after beating someone like Joshua.
Regardless of the pressure Paul may or may not face, he’s a competitor and wants to win at everything he does, which is how he’s gotten to where he is today. So how does Paul pull off what appears to be a miracle on paper? Paul must earn Joshua’s respect from the start, which means landing a big right hand down the middle. If Paul’s power is legitimate and Joshua feels it, he can then use his left jab and footwork to maneuver around the ring and clinch at times to frustrate Joshua. The former unified heavyweight champion isn’t very quick on his feet, so moving around can frustrate him and cause him to overcommit with his punches. If Paul can limit exchanges on the inside and use the full width of the ring, he can box his way to a decision victory.
All The Pressure Is on Anthony Joshua And That’s Not A Good Thing
It’s no secret that Joshua has shown a fragile mentality, which has caused him to underperform. June 2019 at Madison Square Garden was a clear example; the pressure of fighting in New York and media obligations that came with such an event caused him to lose focus, resulting in him being stopped by Andy Ruiz. More recently, this was evident in the knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in September 2024. Now, Joshua is in a fight he’s “supposed to win” because of his experience and accomplishments in boxing, making the pressure to perform greater than ever. If Joshua loses focus even briefly in this fight against Paul, he could face serious trouble, and the fight with Fury in September 2026 might be at risk.
What does Joshua do when the bell rings to start the first round? Joshua needs to force the action and close the distance between himself and Paul. Although he might be tempted to go for the head, he can do much more damage to the body by consistently landing those big left and right hooks. Paul has a slightly soft mid-section, which can be targeted to bring his arms down and set up for a devastating overhand right that could lead to a knockout.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Prediction
In boxing, things that seem like sure bets can sometimes lead to outcomes that aren’t quite expected. The ring size for this fight is 22×22 feet, slightly larger than the average 20×20 ring, but not quite the largest, which would be 24×24. This fight feels like one Paul will simply look to survive until the last bell, and if that happens, I am leaning towards a controversial split-decision victory for Paul.
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Betting Odds
Per DraftKings SportsBook, Anthony Joshua is the favorite at -1200, and Jake Paul is the underdog at +700.
Jake Paul: TKO/KO +1200; Decision +1600
Draw: +2200
Anthony Joshua: TKO/KO -400; Decision +450
Round Group Betting
Jake Paul to Win In Rounds 1-2: +3000
Jake Paul to Win In Rounds 3-4: +4000
Jake Paul to Win In Rounds 5-6: +5000
Jake Paul to Win In Rounds 7-8: +6500
Anthony Joshua to Win In Rounds 1-2: +120
Anthony Joshua to Win In Rounds 3-4: +280
Anthony Joshua to Win In Rounds 5-6: +650
Anthony Joshua to Win In Rounds 7-8: +1800
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