Entering the squared circle this weekend is the return of one of boxing’s most celebrated pound-for-pound fighters, four-division world champion Naoya “The Monster” Inoue (31-0, 27 KOs). The undisputed super bantamweight champion will be headlining the Ring V: Night of the Samurai event with some of his fellow Japanese countrymen, Junto Nakatani and Kenshiro Teraji. The four-division champion will be making his fourth appearance in the ring this year and the fourth defense of his undisputed crown against Mexico’s David Alan Picasso (32-0-1, 17 KOs).
For the better part of this decade, Inoue, along with Oleksandr Usyk and the now-retired Terence Crawford, has interchanged the top of the pound-for-pound list. But what separates Inoue from his contemporaries and the rest of the pound-for-pound top ten is his level of activity. While Crawford and Usyk did their impression of Groundhog Day fighting primarily once a year, with one exception, since 2020, Inoue has been a constant inside the ring fighting in and out of his native Japan.
Like most elite fighters, it’s often found that the person standing across the ring from them is secondary to what’s next. A planned showdown with Nakatani is scheduled next for Inoue in what would be one of the biggest fights in Japanese boxing history. The current unified bantamweight and three-division champion also stands with Inoue as one of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound. The plan is for the two to meet sometime next year, should they both come out victorious in their upcoming bouts. Although Inoue-Nakatani is one of the most significant fights in all of boxing, should it come to fruition, boxing history hasn’t been kind to fighters who plan major fights before finishing the one in front of them.
Throughout boxing history, fighters have found themselves cursed to fumble the bag when a major fight hangs in the balance. Oscar De La Hoya entered the ring at his heaviest and softest when he faced Felix Sturm in June 2004 for the WBO middleweight title, setting up a clash with middleweight kingpin Bernard Hopkins. On that night, Hopkins took care of business against Robert Allen. Still, De La Hoya was fortunate to escape with a controversial decision, barely averting disaster in a fight where he was out-landed and befuddled by the jab.
Years later, De La Hoya sat ringside as a promoter, next to then-star pupil for Golden Boy Promotions, Canelo Alvarez. The duo watched a potential PPV match with former welterweight titleholder Victor Ortiz go down the drain as massive underdog Josesito Lopez scored a ninth-round stoppage, breaking the enigmatic Ortiz’s jaw in June 2012. Lopez instead got the opportunity to face Alvarez.
More recently, a potential rematch loomed between Ryan Garcia and Devin Haney following their controversial April 2024 bout, which featured multiple knockdowns, a strange promotion, and a failed drug test. In May, headlining a card in Times Square in New York City, Haney scored a dull unanimous decision over former unified junior welterweight champion Jose Ramirez, while Garcia, in the main event, either allowed the pressure or a lack of preparation to consume him. Garcia, as a massive favorite, was comprehensively outboxed and knocked down by Rolly Romero, who neutralized the social-media fan favorite fighter, taking away his left hook. It was a shocking outcome to many who believed Garcia held every advantage over Romero. The rematch between Haney and Garcia may still happen, but it’s lost some luster until Garcia redeems himself.
Inoue is aware that it could be dangerous to look ahead to Nakatani, especially when his opponent, Picasso, is more than capable of scoring an upset.
“Now, this battle with Picasso, I will keep this in mind and think about it after this match is over,” Inoue told Ring Magazine when asked about a fight with Nakatani.
The WBC, as of late, has earned its reputation for being at times biased and making head-scratching decisions. But when it comes to David Alan Picasso, he earned his contender status by winning the WBC silver title and continually fighting as often as possible. In 2024, Picasso fought five times, working his way to a number two ranking by the WBC and a number four ranking by Ring Magazine in the super bantamweight division. Picasso is one of the taller fighters at super bantamweight, standing close to 5’10 “with a high activity level. While Inoue has shown himself to be extraordinary, he has also been vulnerable at times to returning fire, and a fighter like Picasso can take advantage of any lapses in focus.
Strangely enough, the fighter Inoue is most often compared to is the legendary Manny Pacquiao, one of Picasso’s favorites. According to Picasso, they had even discussed fighting Inoue before the fight was made. And to pull off the victory over Inoue, Picasso will need to channel Pacquiao, who has been the underdog for some of his most important victories.
“Manny Pacquiao, he is one of my greatest heroes,” Picasso told DAZN. Not only because of his boxing style, but also because of how he was as a fighter, and also what he was like as a person. He supported as many people as he could because he grew up in difficult conditions, and he knows what it’s like to start from scratch. Then he gave me a lot of advice. We even talked about the Inoue fight without knowing it was going to happen. He gave me several tips on movements. He, along with Muhammad Ali and Chavez, are my greatest heroes.”
NAOYA INOUE VS ALAN PICASSO PREDICTION
Inoue is a boxer who still seems fully enthralled in his career and legacy as a fighter. He understands what’s at stake each time he steps inside the ring. Fans can expect a battle similar to Inoue’s fight with Ramon Cardenas earlier this year, a back-and-forth exhibition of Inoue’s world-class offense. When Picasso pushes Inoue, he will push back and be on the lookout for any openings.
Inoue should stop Picasso in the late rounds in an exciting fight that leaves fans salivating at a battle with Nakatani and wanting to see more of the young Mexican contender.
NAOYA INOUE VS ALAN PICASSO BETTING ODDS
Per DraftKings SportsBook, Naoya Inoue is the favorite at -4000, and Alan Picasso is the underdog at +1400.
Naoya Inoue: TKO/KO -750; Decision +450
Draw: +3500
Alan Picasso: TKO/KO +2000; Decision +4000
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