We are just days away from the super fight between two undefeated fighters for the undisputed super bantamweight title, as champion Naoya Inoue (32-0, 27 KOs) faces Junto Nakatani (32-0, 24 KOs) at the Tokyo Dome in Japan, live on DAZN.
There are reportedly 55,000 fans in attendance, and the whole country of Japan will be tuned in to watch. In the States, hardcore fight fans will wake up early on Saturday morning to see this pound-for-pound matchup take place. Has Inoue shown just enough chinks in the armor for Nakatani to exploit and come out victorious, or will Inoue once again show his greatness on the biggest stage?
FightsATW gathered contributing writers for the site, along with a few industry figures, to determine who they think will come out victorious on Saturday.
Robert Diaz (Longtime Matchmaker, Advisor & President of Sheer Sports): Inoue
It’s one of the best fights I think we’re going to see. The biggest fight in Japanese history. Two of the best fighters, I think, we’ve seen from Japan. It’s rare that I get excited about a fight, but I’m excited about this one.
I think the difference will be Inoue’s explosiveness and high-level experience. As good as Nakatani is, and I’ve seen him here in sparring sessions, a great guy and someone I am a big fan of, I just think Inoue is on another level, but it’s going to be a great fight. The fans will be the winners, but I favor Inoue in a close decision.
Michael Woods (Veteran Journalist/Boxing reporter, Contributing writer for FightsATW, broadcaster, podcaster, ex NY Newsday, ESPN Mag & RING Contributor): Inoue
Is 33 old? In boxing, it is a tippy age; lots of folks have figured out that their athletic prime is over. 28 is not old, so I am tempted to go with youth, in Nakatani, over the aging Inoue. Nope….A slightly degraded Inoue is still great enough to decision his countryman in an ultra-thriller.
Matthew Aguilar (Contributing writer for FightsATW, Inductee El Paso Boxing HOF & Host Old Scribes Podcast): Inoue
It’s tempting to go with Nakatani. He is younger, taller, and bigger. And he has great skills and power that matches Inoue. But he struggled in his last fight with Sebastian Hernandez and showed some vulnerabilities that Inoue will exploit. Particularly, a leaky defense. But he may put the “Monster” on the canvas before he succumbs in what will be a great fight in the vein of 1977’s Zarate-Zamora shootout. Inoue by 7th round TKO.
Adam Noble-Forcey (Contributing writer, FightsATW & Boxing Social): Inoue
I think Inoue can out-pedigree Nakatani in Tokyo, but I don’t see him knocking him out. It’s not out of this realm, but as lackluster as Nakatani was in his last fight, his chin held, it always has when tested. Inoue takes a reasonably wide unanimous decision, but he might run into some trouble along the way. Nakatani’s unpredictability might see a flash knockdown for Inoue, but he’ll find a way to win.
Mario Mungia (Contributing writer, FightsATW): Inoue
This is what boxing is all about (in case there are any parties currently sculpting blueprints for the sport of prizefighting) with two undefeated fighters at the top of a division, swimming at opposite ends of the P4P pool, facing off on the world stage. Nakatani as the naturally bigger guy will have an early advantage, and that’s to say he is more dangerous in the first half of the fight than the last half.
Inoue will need some time, but if he can weather the storm (as well as any “power outages”), then his superior skills will take shape on the fight script leading to a late-round stoppage at some point just before or during the championship rounds. Inoue by late-fight stoppage.
Hector Franco (Contributing writer, FightsATW): Inoue
It’s difficult to go against Naoya Inoue at this point in his career. His level of consistent dominance is rare and what separates good fighters from great ones. He has proven he can handle and respond to adversity, whether fighting with a fractured orbital bone and broken nose against Nonito Donaire or suffering knockdowns from Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas. When the fight gets more difficult, Inoue answers back with tenacity. In his last two performances against Murodjon Akhmadaliev and Alan David Picasso, the two-time undisputed champion displayed power, precision, and composure. An ability to make adjustments mid-fight, and a willingness to go the full 12 rounds if needed. It’s his adaptability, toughness, and mental aptitude to step up his game when the stakes are at their highest that will lead him to victory over Nakatani. Inoue by TKO in round 11.
Liahm O’Brien (Contributing Writer, FightsATW.com): Inoue
Though both men haven’t even laced their gloves yet, Inoue vs Nakatani already has an aura and mystique to it that will ensure the titanic contest is spoken about for decades, if not centuries, to come.
To me, the pivotal deciding factor comes down to Nakatani’s ability to break through. Junto is a trap setter with an ability to punch with both hands and if there has been a clear dent in the armour of Inoue, it is that he is prone to dropping his right hand and walking into counter rear-left hands when entering exchanges on the inside- see fights with Donaire, Nery and Cardenas as examples. Even if these shots didn’t send “The Monster” close to a loss of consciousness, they are examples of his body failing him. A smart southpaw fighter like Nakatani is more than capable of landing a bomb in similar fashion.
With that said, I can’t pick against the foot speed and angle changes of Inoue. The body of work is just too much to ignore. I expect the champion to retain his titles, facing adversity early but pulling away late to record a unanimous decision, eight rounds to four.
Fernando Quiles Jr. (Contributing writer, FightsATW & Newsweek): Inoue
I wonder how Inoue’s emotions will be compared to Nakatani’s. If Inoue gets too aggressive because he feels the pressure of this fight at home, Nakatani will make him pay. Ultimately, I think Nakatani struggles with Inoue’s ability to close the gap and get lured into a chess match before the accumulation takes its toll. Naoya Inoue by TKO in round nine.
Kemuel “Kemii” Sanchez (Trainer & Owner of Coach Kemii Boxing Club in Iwakuni, Japan): Inoue
The Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani fight is just as exciting as Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson in the 1990s. I see this matchup as a very close one, with the odds at 55–45 in favor of Naoya Inoue.
Inoue has faced opponents with greater experience and high-level technical foundations. however, at the same time, Junto Nakatani has been exposed to the Mexican-American style from an early age, adding a dangerous dimension to his skill set. This is an extremely competitive fight, and I expect it to be highly technical—one that will be decided by precision, timing, and ring IQ rather than brute force. I see Inoue having the advantage and winning by majority decision. (Editor’s note: Kemi has worked with fighters such as Brandon Figueroa, Nelson Hampton, Marcelino López, Jorge Castañeda, Eruka Hiromoto, Tania Itzel García Hernández, and several others.)
Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani Prediction Panel Results: 9-0 for Inoue
Although the panel picked Inoue to win, with their experience ranging from a few years to over 20 years in their respective fields, I am going to be the Lone Wolf and pick Nakatani to score the upset split decision in a fight that will be deemed a classic, setting up the rematch on New Year’s Eve in Japan.
Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani Betting Odds
Per BETUS, Naoya Inoue is the favorite at -420, and Junto Nakatani is the underdog at +320.
Naoya Inoue: TKO/KO Even; Decision +175
Draw: +1400
Junto Nakatani: TKO/KO +550; Decision +900
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