Tuesday’s undisputed super bantamweight title fight between Naoya Inoue and TJ Doheny has all but one wondering how quickly the fight will end, which is usually the case when it comes to predicting any of the Japanese superstar’s fights.
Doheny (26-4, 20 KOs), a former IBF world champion, had seen a sharp drop from the top of the super bantamweight division following an unsuccessful unification clash with WBA belt holder Daniel Roman over five years ago. Romania’s Ionut Baluta handed the Irishman his second career defeat a year later in an eight-round contest in Dubai. Michael Conlan added to the deficit with another points loss the following year as world honors became a distant memory.
The undefeated Sam Goodman would comfortably outpoint Doheny last March as his career moved to a lower standard. However, Japan called, and three knockout victories followed as the Australian-based 37-year-old’s cult status exploded. Kazuki Nakajima (14-1-1, at the time) was victim to a surprise fourth-round stoppage last June in Tokyo. He would then make light work of undefeated American Japhethlee Llamido, laying him flat on his back with an overhand left inside the first round.
A third consecutive fight in the Japanese came against the undefeated Filipino Bryl Bayogos on the Inoue-Luis Nery undercard. It would be the second fight in a row as the home fighter in Japan. Another knockout followed this time by the fourth, leading to a shot at the pound-for-pound star. Despite the heroic comeback story, make no doubt about it, he will get stopped at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo. The West has been scratching its head as the news broke of Inoue’s latest appearance, but Doheny’s under-the-radar exploits in Japan make the fight as interesting as any of Inoue’s recent matchups; it usually ends in the same fashion.
Inoue (27-0, 24 KOs) was knocked down in the first round of his latest fight with Luis Nery in May. A rare glimpse of frailty from arguably boxing’s best fighter shows that he can be caught but not put down. Inoue dusted himself off calmly and would go to floor Nery in the following round with a smart counter left hook. He would showboat in the fourth, knocking down Nery for a second time in the fifth on the way to a sixth-round stoppage victory. A sign of weakness ultimately brought the best of Inoue on the night. The 31-year-old’s run has been incredible, as this will be his 22nd consecutive world title fight. Nery, Marlon Tapales, Stephen Fulton and Paul Butler, Nonito Donaire, Aran Dipaen, Michael Dasmarinas, and Jason Moloney had culminated in an eight-fight knockout streak.
Inoue last went the distance nearly five years ago in a first bout with Donaire for the IBF and WBA bantamweight belts. He had seen another eight-fight knockout streak before a rare full 12 rounds with the Filipino favorite, including victims such as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Juan Carlos Payano, and Jamie McDonnell. If Inoue retired today, a two-weight undisputed world champion, his name would go down in history. However, featherweight aspirations are on the horizon, with Inoue set to have two more fights at 122 pounds this year. Doheny takes slot one on Tuesday.
It’s a no-brainer for Inoue to give Doheny a chance, his most winnable fight in a long time against a man who does numbers in Japan. It’s a fair option with the division largely defeated and the belts in the locker. The bookmakers have given Doheny a five percent chance of pulling off the unthinkable at 18/1 (+1800). Inoue’s odds of 1/50 (-5000) to win are quite generous, with 1/10 for the knockout and Doheny to score a stoppage at 25/1.
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