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Add FightsATW on GoogleWhat should you know about Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez versus Christian Mbilli?
The DAZN pay-per-view bout will take place on Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Despite Alvarez still being the face of boxing, the setting is front and center.
From the Riyadh airport being bombed by the Houthis to the U.S. evacuating non-emergency personnel from its embassy, this isn’t just another fight week. The airport only reopened on Sunday.
It is difficult to discern what is going on, given unfamiliarity with the region, but one thing is for sure. It will be different.
Let’s look at the stories:
Does Canelo Still Have It?
It is a real question. Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 KOs) beat Gennadiy Golovkin and then became the undisputed super middleweight champion. That vaulted him to pound-for-pound No. 1. Then he lost to Dmitry Bivol. That loss seemed to change something.
One could say that when Alvarez lost to Floyd Mayweather, he adopted some of Mayweather’s elusive style. I contend that he lost to Golovkin in their first fight, which was ruled a draw. After that fight, he became more aggressive, like Golovkin. After Bivol, he seems emotionally checked out of the sport.
His opponents, in order: a 40-year-old Golovkin; John Ryder; the undisputed 154-lb champion Jermell Charlo, moving up two weight classes; Jaime Munguia; Edgar Berlanga; and William Scull. He last fought in September and lost to Terence Crawford, who moved up two weight classes to beat him.
In the last four years, Alvarez has fought high-profile opponents, but either had physical advantages or was vastly more experienced than his foes. Some even argue he might have lost to Scull; I never watched the full fight, so I can’t comment.
Mbilli (29-0-1, 24 KOs) is, if nothing else, competent. Alvarez turned pro 21 years ago and has made a lot of money. This is the type of guy who will test how much you still love the sport. In short, do you still have it?
Canelo’s Power
The story of the fight is this: Can Alvarez hurt Mbilli? If the answer is no, r’ut r’oh.
Mbilli comes forward with tons of volume. He is hungry and eager to prove himself. In theory, Mbilli should walk into huge counterpunches from Alvarez. Those who come forward like James Kirkland are target practice for him. That said, if Mbilli starts going downhill, Alvarez’s accuracy will be vital.
Canelo Has Stopped Someone Since Caleb Plant
That was almost five years ago. Yes, he hits hard, but after the Bivol fight, that same ferocity doesn’t seem to be there. Alvarez could win this fight and has a chance to land clean, concussive blows; it doesn’t seem likely he’ll get the KO.
Why? His recent track record suggests that Lester Martinez might be a bigger puncher than Canelo, and Mbilli went all 10 rounds with him.
There is a difference between hitting hard and securing stoppages. Alvarez still hits hard, but the urgency to stop his opponent hasn’t been seen in some time.
Mbilli: Youth And An Olympian
The misconception about Mbilli is that he’s just a guy who runs at you. He is a 2016 French Olympian. He weaponizes pace like Subriel Matias, and sure, he gets hit. The difference is: Mbilli sees things typical brawlers don’t. He has a fight IQ, but he often relies on his motor as much as his talent.
Will he change that narrative in this fight? Even if it doesn’t, does just being busy at this point give Alvarez issues?
The Genius of Marc Ramsay
Ramsay has the best eye for talent in boxing. He is also a helluva boxing coach. He is in Mbilli’s corner, and when he is in someone’s corner, you should always take heed. He helped Artur Beterbiev become a pound-for-pound fighter, and now he has the chance to do the same with Mbilli with a win.
The Odds And Eye Test
Since I haven’t seen either fighter in over a year, I have no clue what to expect. Alvarez should be the better fighter, but aging is real. And if Mbilli is younger and able to do young people’s stuff, this could be tough for Alvarez, who just doesn’t seem as motivated as he once was. The odds favor Alvarez.
The Undercard
Jaime Munguia is fighting Nikita Zon. Huh?
Even more startling, Munguia had a mandatory title defense against Bektemir Melikuziev. I am sure there will be fight-week talk about this, but I don’t know the details of how or if he will defend his title. Zon has an uninspiring resume as he steps up to face the Mexican slugger Munguia.
Another huh moment comes when WBO featherweight titleholder Rafael Espinoza will face Ricardo Blandon, a late sub for Lorenzo Parra, after the Middle East Professional Boxing Commission denied Parra due to “medical exam complications.” Espinoza versus Parra, “Hey, that is fun!” Espinoza versus Blandon isn’t.
A featherweight bout between David Picasso and Carl Jammes Martin could be fun. Two limited sluggers facing each other. But that is it. The rest is just undercard filler, with prospects in developmental fights.
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