Lamont Roach Jr vs William Zepeda: Who Wins?

There is an extremely competitive WBC lightweight world title fight on Saturday night, promoted by Golden Boy and streaming live on TNT Sports in the U.S. and on DAZN worldwide. Lamont Roach Jr (25-1-3, 10 KOs) and William Zepeda (33-1, 27 KOs) will fight for the WBC title in a scheduled 12-round fight, with fans and media split down the middle on who will come out on top.

With arguments for either fighter to win, let’s take a look at the matchup and make sense of it all.

Will It Be ‘Third Time’s A Charm’ For Lamont Roach?

Things have been great but frustrating for Roach over the past two years. Great because he was finally given the opportunities to main-event fights against big names like Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis and Isaac ‘Pitbull’ Cruz. Frustrating because in both of those fights, the end result was a draw. In the Davis fight, there was a controversial no-call on a knockdown that cost Roach the victory and could have put him on a different trajectory.

Instead, it led to him having to prove that the Davis fight wasn’t a fluke against a hard-hitting contender in Cruz. Roach went down in the fight, and with Cruz being deducted a point for a kidney punch, the result would be a draw. If it wasn’t for Roach going down, he could have won the fight, but for the second fight in a row, things didn’t go his way.

Now he faces Zepeda, who has a fighting style similar to Cruz’s but with double the work rate. So how does Roach beat Zepeda? Roach’s stamina will have to be at its best, as he will have to rely on his feet to get him out of trouble. He will also have to rely on his smart counterpunching and accurate punch placement to make Zepeda hit a speed bump. When Zepeda lunges in, Roach needs to step to the side and land a straight right or a left hook to Zepeda’s head. He then needs to do the same to the body, alternating sequences, so he can zap the energy out of Zepeda. If he can do this for 12 rounds, which is going to be hard, then he can earn a close but unanimous decision.

Will Inactivity Be An Issue For The Buzzsaw William Zepeda?

It’s been over a year since Zepeda has stepped into the ring. The last time was against pound-for-pound fighter Shakur Stevenson. That night, Stevenson dominated Zepeda for 12 rounds. Although Stevenson had some moments when he was buzzed, he made it look easy for the most part. All of Stevenson’s opponents would say he isn’t easy to find, but does Roach have that same ability? Some will argue that he doesn’t, but Zepeda being inactive for the last 12 months may or may not be a factor in trying to pin Roach down.

If Zepeda is the fighter we are used to seeing, then how does he beat Roach? Zepeda doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel here, as he is who he is: an all-action pressure fighter. That’s what he needs to do on Saturday night. Zepeda needs to suffocate Roach early with his pressure and make Roach work more than he is used to. Zepeda also has to go back to working the body early, which he’s abandoned a bit in the last few fights. If he can wear Roach down early with the body attack, Zepeda could have an opportunity to stop him late.

Lamont Roach Jr vs William Zepeda Prediction

I love this fight, but it’s going to be fought in two halves. Roach will likely dominate the first half, while Zepeda will come on strong in the second. While I want to lean toward Roach winning by split decision, my gut tells me the judges won’t be able to declare a winner, and we’ll have another draw, making it three in a row for Roach.

Lamont Roach Jr vs William Zepeda Betting Odds

Per BETUS, Lamont Roach Jr is the favorite at -125 and William Zepeda is the underdog at -105.

Lamont Roach Jr: TKO/KO +550; Decision +110

Draw: +1400

William Zepeda: TKO/KO +500; Decision +240

Abraham Gonzalez

Abraham Gonzalez is a 2x award-winning writer, International Boxing Hall of Fame voter, founder and publisher of FightsATW. His journalistic work has been published and used across several platforms, including online, network TV, and promotional companies. He is an alumnus of an American Public University and a full member of the Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA). Abraham was the Managing Editor for NYFights, Big Fight Weekend, and contributed to The Ring Magazine, FanSidedMMA, and ProBoxTV.

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