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Add FightsATW on GoogleAfter so much talk about the fight possibly being postponed, we are just hours away from the WBC super-middleweight title fight between champion Christian Mbill (29-0-1, 24 KOs) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 KOs). With so much on the line, who will have their hand raised at the end of the night?
Christian Mbilli Has The Tools But Is That Enough?
One thing that can’t be questioned in this fight is the mental and physical toughness that the champion Mbilli brings every time. At times, it can make a fight closer than it needs to be, but it brings a level of excitement that has fans coming back for more.
Let’s take his last fight in September 2025 against Lester Martinez as an example. Mbilli went toe-to-toe with Martinez over ten rounds, resulting in a split draw. Mbilli could have shifted to a more boxing-oriented battle when it became clear he wasn’t going to get Martinez out of there, but instead he stood in the pocket and tried to outwork him. Mbilli made mistakes and paid for them in that fight, but questions remain about whether he could afford to make those same mistakes against a guy like Canelo. We will soon find out.
What does Mbilli have to do to win? He will not win by boxing Canelo from a distance, so he is going to have to bull rush him, get him onto the ropes, and corner him as much as he can. When he has him there, Mbilli has to overwhelm Canelo with SMART offense while still paying attention to counterattacks. At 36, Canelo is fast but not as fast as he was against Gennadiy Golovkin, so Mbilli will have to take some risks. Also, Mbilli needs to work on Canelo’s body, a tactic largely ignored by the long list of Canelo opponents. If Mbilli can break down Canelo early and deflate him, he can win the later rounds clearly and potentially walk out with a split decision.
Is Canelo Alvarez ‘Washed’?
If someone tells you that Canelo is still in somewhat prime form, they are either on his payroll, on DAZN’s, or just a die-hard fan. The reality is that Canelo’s peak days are long gone. However, his past prime version is better than most guys in the division. Last September, Canelo fought a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Terence Crawford, and lost a close but unanimous decision on the scorecards. Although two of the judges gave Canelo five rounds, the eyes of the fans, even the hardcore Canelo ones, thought he barely won three.
One thing that has stuck with me since that night is Canelo saying that he lost because his mind wanted to do one thing while his body wasn’t doing what he wanted. That is something fighters who are closer to retirement tend to say, and that fight night was followed by Canelo having surgery on his arm and then delaying the fight by a month due to “personal reasons.” All those things combined can be a recipe for disaster on fight night, or they could just add to the story of Canelo if he beats Mbilli.
How does Canelo beat the hard-charging Mbilli? Canelo has to be mindful of his punch output and prioritize accuracy over volume. The right punch in the middle of Mbilli’s front-foot attack could end the fight. Mbilli tends to throw wide punches, which leaves him open to a counter uppercut or a straight right hand. Also, hooks to Mbilli’s chest during the wild exchanges can slow the champion down later in the fight. If Canelo can earn Mbilli’s respect early, he can set him up for big combinations later in the fight that could lead to a stoppage.
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Prediction
This is a tough fight to pick, especially since the event is being put on by Ring Magazine and Canelo Promotions. My heart says Mbilli beats the older former champion, but my mind says Canelo ultimately gets the split decision victory.
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