Errol Spence Jr vs. Tim Tszyu: Who Wins?

Boxing heads to Australia on Saturday night (Sunday on location) as No Limit Boxing hosts an intriguing matchup between former unified welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr (28-1, 22 KOs) and former WBO junior middleweight champion Tim Tszyu (27-3, 18 KOs) at Sydney’s Afterpay Arena, live on pay-per-view.

The term crossroads fight couldn’t be more fitting, as Spence and Tszyu cannot afford a devastating loss, which would either set them back or force them into retirement. Questions from both fighters will be answered Saturday night when they meet in the center of the ring.

The Return of ‘The Big Fish’

The last time Spence was in the ring, he was beaten from pillar to post over nine rounds in a fight where we saw the very best version of Terence Crawford we would ever witness. Spence was knocked down three times that night, and he took significant time away from the ring. There were questions about whether he would even fight again as fans patiently waited for his return or any news of it. While away, Spence appeared to have worked on himself and spent a lot of time with his family and the animals on his farm. Then, out of nowhere, Spence announced he was going to fight Tszyu, and anticipation began to build.

Now that we are a few days away, no one knows which version of Spence we will see, but we can take a look at what he needs to do to beat Tszyu. Spence has been gone a while, so he has to box off his right jab to establish a rhythm from outside mid-range. If Spence is on, he will throw that jab to Tszyu’s body and head to change the eye level. If Tszyu clams up, Spence needs to load up and dig his left hook to the body. If Spence can use his 1-2 combinations to keep Tszyu off him, he should be able to earn a relatively easy decision victory.

Will The 2023 Version of Tim Tszyu Show Up On Saturday Night?

The last time Tszyu looked like the vicious junior middleweight who did everything to try to lure Jermell Charlo into the ring was in March 2023, when he systematically broke down Tony Harrison over nine rounds. That night, Tszyu had it all clicking. Smothering foot pressure, body punching, and vicious combinations. We would see a small sample of that in the fight after, and then a unanimous decision over Brian Mendoza. He would then face Sebastian Fundora in that bloody war that no one will ever forget. That night, a piece of Tszyu was left in the ring and was never recovered. The residual effects were seen in his next fight, when Tszyu was battered and stopped in three rounds by Bakhram Murtazaliev.

Tszyu would get a bounce-back win against Joey Spencer but then quit on his stool in the rematch against Fundora last July. Tszyu would bounce back and earn two consecutive unanimous decisions, but the smothering version seen in 2023 was gone. Tszyu appeared more gun-shy and unsure of what he was doing in the ring. Adding to that, he has switched trainers again for this fight, going with Jeff Fenech. There is just a lot of uncertainty in his camp, and Tszyu’s lack of stability could be a big factor in this fight.

So what does Tszyu have to do to win this fight? He has to test Spence right away. That comes with risk, but he has to force Spence to fight and make the older fighter work harder earlier in the fight. Tszyu has to keep the fight within mid-range or closer so Spence cannot extend his arms. If Tszyu can frustrate Spence and make him fight blow-for-blow, Tszyu has the opportunity to land something big, especially since Spence’s head movement hasn’t ever been great. Tszyu can get a big stoppage, but it’s going to take a relentless offensive onslaught from him to do it.

Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu Prediction

This is a tough fight to call, as there are reasons to believe either fighter could come out victorious. Although Spence has been out of the ring nearly three years, he is still the fundamentally sounder fighter, and that should be enough to earn him a close but unanimous decision.

Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu Betting Odds

Per BETUS, Errol Spence Jr (-120) and Tim Tszyu (-110) currently both have favorable odds at the beginning of fight week.

Errol Spence Jr: TKO/KO +200; Decision +300

Draw: +1400

Tim Tszyu: TKO/KO +185; Decision +500

Abraham Gonzalez

Abraham Gonzalez is a 2x award-winning writer, International Boxing Hall of Fame voter, founder and publisher of FightsATW. His journalistic work has been published and used across several platforms, including online, network TV, and promotional companies. He is an alumnus of an American Public University and a full member of the Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA). Abraham was the Managing Editor for NYFights, Big Fight Weekend, and contributed to The Ring Magazine, FanSidedMMA, and ProBoxTV.

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